Saturday Pick 3: Week 9 

It’s the last Saturday in October, which is sad because it feels like this season is just beginning to hit stride. The football season is too short and too long all at the same time, and I’m just as confused after typing this sentence. You see on one hand, the overall length of the season is just right, 12-15 weeks plus bowl season, but the whole week off in between leaves you wanting more by Wednesday night, assuming there was no Tuesday Night MACtion going on. I think the NFL would benefit by revamping the season format by adding a few games and a few bye weeks, giving teams one bye week every five weeks, but its hard to do in college, especially as long as you’re not paying the talent. Free labor will only be free for so long. Nevertheless, I think adding an extra bye week for teams and spreading out the season by a week or two would help bridge the gap before bowl season, or meaningful bowl season. This would be a potential solution to the bad bowl game problem that has plagued the NCAA the last few season (or longer) by helping to keep the players more interested during their 2-4 week break. Can we just start the 12 Team Playoff now so we can get to 16 sooner? Week 9, here… we… go

Central Michigan @ Akron (-5) 

Both of these teams aren’t good, and this is more of a spot play for me because there is no chance in hell I’d bet on either of these teams if I knew what was good for me. Since both are equally as bad, I have Akron as about a 2.5 point favorite based on their power rankings, so there is just a small amount of value on Central Michigan. But once I put these through my module, the value was jaw dropping. Mid American road dogs in the 3.5-6.5 line range (I’ll expand on my ranges in depth another day, but this is predetermined, not cherry picked) perform extremely well. Since 2015 these dogs are 9-2 ATS, and have an average margin of victory of 3.6 points. Mid Value raw, Large Value after analysis.

Play: Central Michigan +5

Navy @ Notre Dame (-23.5) 

The Irish are having a good season. The Irish have played some impressive games. But 23.5 points is just too much, even for this team. Oddly enough, I think the Neutral site (San Diego) is a bigger advantage for Notre Dame, since this requires the Midshipmen to travel across the country for the game. End of the day though, I’m taking the points and expecting Navy to keep this game somewhat close.

Play: Navy +23.5

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (-2.5) 

Mississippi State is reeling after losing 3 out of 4 games and falling out of the Top 25, again. Outside of their lone victory during this skid was against Auburn, the Bulldogs have failed to score more than 7 points in any of the three losses, which have all come against conference opponents. Enter Texas A&M, who’s two losses have come against Clemson (Ranked 2) and Alabama (Ranked 1), but have failed to dominate any of their SEC games. Much like the MAC matchup, this is a spot play where all signs point to Texas A&M, even though the teams are pretty evenly matched. SEC Road Dogs of 3 points or less since 2015 are 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread, when the road offense is what I consider above average, winning by an average margin of 8.6 points.

Play: Texas A&M +2.5

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