This is officially the hump of the NFL season. We’ve completed eight weeks, after this we’ll have eight more weeks to go. After minimal movement earlier in the week, most of these lines have stayed put all weekend, with the exception of the Rams/Saints game. I run two different systems based on two separate sets of lines, because I’m anti-simplicity, and 3 out of 4 produced the Saints as a play. However, only one of the outcomes had a strong indicator, and you’ve probably guessed it, it was the one that had the Rams! Now, it produced the Rams at +1.5 (SuperContest Line), and they are now favored by 1.5 points, so as you can see, the betting market is complicated. This is why I avoided the game all together so I can just watch and enjoy what is looking to be an instant classic. Ok, you got me, I put the Saints in a tease at +7.5, so I’ll have to watch until the bitter end hoping for a 3 point Rams victory…
Jets @ Dolphins (-3)
The Jets are in a spiral after their impressive week one win at Detroit, but a trip to Miami just might be the remedy. The Dolphins season has been a mess since they got blown out by the Pats week four, and outside of the one magical game by Brock Osweiller against the Bears, he has been about as B.O. as you would expect. The Dolphins may benefit from playing at home, against a bad division opponent, but I like points in close/bad divisional matchups.
Play: Jets +3
Lions @ Vikings (-4.5)
After showing a little life, the Lions came out of their bye and fell flat on their face against the Seahawks. West Coast Teams playing in the 1PM time slot typically don’t perform well, unless they are playing in Detroit (I’ll post some of my research on this in the offseason.) Now they have to travel to Minnesota who are a covering machine at home, especially against bum teams, and have one of the best Bum Slaying QB’s in the history of the NFL, Kirk Cousins. The line has moved a point since Saturday Night, and I jumped once I saw the line under 5.
Play: Vikings -4.5
Rams (-1.5) @ Saints and Packers @ Patriots (-6)
These should be two GEMs, a gift from the Football Gods who have blessed us with a pretty good slate of early season matchups. The strategy is simple here: get as many points as you can! My systems do not allign on either of these games, but I’ll never pass up finding really good teams to max out points on.
Play: Tease Saints +7.5/Packers +12