Week 16 NFL Plays

There was some significant line movement since Wednesday afternoon, and a few of the point totals I had bet have moved out of being plays. Sometimes, that’s just the way it goes. There is still a lot of value on the board, however, this is sort of a tricky week to navigate because of injuries that are either known (Panthers) or are playing through despite obvious discomfort (Packers), which makes injury adjustments difficult to decipher. For instance, I’ve observed that back up QBs are playing better in their first start and declining in their second so far this season. Furthermore, especially in the case of the Panthers, Cam’s decline has gotten so bad, is Taylor Heinicke really that much of a drop off right now?

Here we go, Week 16 Plays. Straight Up in BOLD, Confidence Points in ( )

Day Road Home Play Units Play Units
Sat Redskins Titans (16) Titans -10 2 Over 37 1
Sat Ravens Chargers (9) Chargers -4 3 Over 43.5 1
Sun Falcons Panthers (2) Panthers +3 1 Over 43.5 1
Sun Packers Jets (4) Jets +3 1 Under 47 3
Sun Vikings Lions (6) Lions +6 2 Under 42.5 1
Sun Texans Eagles (7) Eagles -1 2 Under 46 3
Sun Jaguars Dolphins (8) Dolphins -4 2 Over 38 1
Sun Bengals Browns (11) Browns -9 3 Under 44 2
Sun Giants Colts (12) Colts -9.5 3 Under 46.5 3
Sun Buccaneers Cowboys (14) Cowboys -7 3 Under 48 3
Sun Bills Patriots (15) Bills +13.5 1 Under 44.5 2
Sun Rams (10) Cardinals Cardinals +14.5 2 Over 44.5 1
Sun Steelers Saints (13) Saints -5.5 3 Under 53 3
Sun Bears (1) 49ers 49ers +4 1 Under 43 1
Sun Chiefs (3) Seahawks Seahawks +3 3 Under 54.5 3
Mon Broncos Raiders (5) Raiders +3 3 Under 43 1