Regression. Is there a dirtier word in the English Language? It is always bound to happen, but still difficult to accept, especially when a down week ends with a blown 7 run lead! The fact of the matter though, is that this week included two new strategies: run totals and 10 unit bets. There was only one run total played, and talk about getting hosed, but my 10 unit bets went 2-1 and there will be good value there over the course of the season.
The reality is regression is part of gambling, and this week had nothing to do with bad luck, needing to tweak the system, or needing to be nicer to people! Just like the early weeks of the season when it felt like I couldn’t lose, it’s nothing more than a cluster of losses, just like a batter not getting a hit over 50 consecutive at bats. The regression pendulum will swing back soon enough.
You can follow my action here. This week I went 25-24 and lost 26.12units. Overall this baseball season, my record dropped to 96-62 and have gained 57.97units. Today’s bets are: